How a 2025 ball‑selection rule is reshaping one‑day cricket
The International Cricket Council’s amendment to the one‑day international (ODI) playing conditions in July 2025 now lets the fielding captain pick, after 34 overs, which of the two white balls used at each end will be used for the remainder of the innings. By allowing the older, more worn ball to stay in play for the final 16 overs, the change has sparked a revival of reverse swing, a phenomenon that is already influencing tactics less than a year before the next World Cup.
The impact is evident in recent performances. When Sam Curran claimed four wickets in the death overs of the third ODI against India at Lord’s in July, he reported that the old ball swung more than twice as much as the new one at the start of the innings. By contrast, Saqib Mahmood, a year earlier in Cardiff against the West Indies, recorded less than half the swing at the death compared with the opening spell.
These isolated cases reflect a broader trend. Since the rule change, half of all full deliveries bowled by pace bowlers in the last ten overs have shown swing of more than one degree, up from 35 percent in the preceding 18 months. Consequently, the economy rate of fast bowlers in the final five overs has slipped from 8.40 runs per over to 7.95, while their bowling average has improved from 19.2 to 18.3 runs per wicket.
The new dynamic makes scoring in the closing stages harder. Sri Lanka exploited it at Headingley, delivering 69 percent of their balls six metres from the stumps or fuller, a strategy that helped them secure a 16‑run victory over England. England themselves have seen statistical benefits. Their bowling average in the death overs has fallen dramatically from 36.76 to 20.91, and their economy rate has dropped from 9.78 to 7.53. At the same time, their batting run‑rate in those phases has risen from 8.07 to 9.16.
After the loss in Leeds, England coach Brendon McCullum urged his side to consider how the new rule might affect their game plans. Three days later at The Oval, England surged from 104‑2 to 214‑2 in the ten overs before Sri Lanka selected their preferred ball, illustrating how quickly teams can adapt.
The effect is not confined to England. Australia, New Zealand, the West Indies, South Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan have all recorded slower scoring rates in the death overs since the amendment. The West Indies, for example, have seen their death‑over run rate fall by 2.39 runs per over. Individual bowlers have also benefited: Alzarri Joseph of the West Indies enjoys an 84 percent increase in swing, cutting his bowling average from 24.1 to 17.4. South Africa’s Lungi Ngidi has seen swing rise by 63.3 percent, lowering his average to 13 and reducing his economy from 9.34 to six runs per over. Similar gains have been noted for New Zealand’s Nathan Smith, Pakistan’s Naseem Shah and Bangladesh’s Mustafizur Rahman.
Pakistan’s captain Shaheen Afridi, already renowned for his late‑innings swing, now averages 1.3 degrees of movement since the rule change, up from 1.2 degrees before. England’s Jofra Archer leads his teammates with an average swing of 0.97 degrees, a 37 percent rise.
The resurgence of reverse swing is most pronounced in England, where the ball now swings 63 percent more in the final overs. Bangladesh has recorded a 33 percent increase in late‑innings movement in matches played across Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan. In Australia and South Africa the effect has been more modest, and only three ODIs have taken place in South Africa since the rule change, making it difficult to forecast the impact for the World Cup, which will be hosted there next year. South African venues have traditionally produced higher late‑innings movement and run rates around 7.35 per over, suggesting that a future spike in reverse swing could force teams to accelerate earlier in the innings.
These observations are based on data gathered before the ongoing ODI tri‑series involving Pakistan, Sri Lanka and England.