China’s Economy Expands 4.5 % in Third Quarter, Outpacing Expectations

China’s gross domestic product grew 4.5 % in the July‑September quarter, surpassing most analysts’ forecasts, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. The figure follows a 4.3 % increase in the second quarter and lifts year‑to‑date growth to 4.6 % for the first nine months of 2026.

The stronger performance reflects a surge in technology‑related exports, driven by the global artificial‑intelligence boom, even as domestic demand remains weak and the property sector continues to struggle. Official statistics show that exports rose more than 16 % in the first three quarters, reaching 23.19 billion yuan (about $3.47 billion), largely on the back of high demand for semiconductors and other tech goods.

Retail sales, a key gauge of consumer activity, rose 1.1 % year‑on‑year in September and 2.6 % over the January‑September period. Industrial production, which tracks output in manufacturing and mining, increased 5.5 % in September, bringing three‑quarter growth to 5.3 %. Investment in fixed assets, covering spending on real estate, factories and machinery, edged up 0.7 % in September but fell 7.2 % for the January‑September stretch.

China’s ruling Communist Party has set a GDP growth target of 4.5‑5 % for 2026, a pace that would rank among the slowest expansions in decades, excluding the COVID‑19 pandemic years.

Zhiguo He, a finance professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business who studies the Chinese economy, told Al Jazeera that the numbers suggest Beijing is on track to meet its goal. “I expect Beijing is getting 4.5 % as wanted,” he said. He added, “A managed slow slowdown is the best Beijing can hope for.” Regarding the housing market, He noted, “Real estate is still shrinking. This is what Beijing wanted and a good thing, and China’s households have been adapting their expectations based on this.”

The report was filed by John Power and published on 19 October 2026. A photo accompanying the story shows containers on a ship at the Ningbo‑Zhoushan port in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, taken on 15 October 2026 (AFP).