Trump’s approval ratings hit record low, raising stakes for US midterms

U.S. President Donald Trump’s popularity has dropped to an all‑time low, a development that could hurt his party in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday. The poll shows growing voter frustration over rising living costs and the widely unpopular U.S.–Israel conflict over Iran.

The survey found that only 31 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with Trump’s performance, the lowest figure recorded during his two terms. Two weeks earlier the approval rating was 32 percent. When asked which party they would support if the midterms were held today, 47 percent said they would vote for Democrats and 35 percent for Republicans, giving Democrats a 12‑point lead – the widest margin in this cycle and an increase from a seven‑point advantage two weeks ago.

The shift away from Republicans is being driven in part by women, who are increasingly choosing Democratic candidates. Forty percent of those surveyed said they believed Democrats would manage the economy better, compared with 33 percent who favored Republicans. The poll, which interviewed 1,679 adults, is a generic ballot that reflects overall voter sentiment but does not break down results by state, leaving room for surprises on Election Day.

Historically, presidents and the parties they lead tend to see a dip in approval around the midterms, and that dip often coincides with losses in Congress. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics notes that supporters of the opposition party are usually more motivated to vote in these contests. Their research shows that in 12 of the last 20 midterm elections since 1946, the incumbent president’s approval fell between July and November, while only seven elections saw an improvement and one – the 2006 race under President George W. Bush – showed no change.

When a president’s rating remains relatively high, the governing party typically loses fewer seats. Conversely, very low approval ratings tend to produce larger losses. Data from the American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara indicates that the party in power lost seats in the House in 18 of the 20 midterms since 1946, although a popular president can soften the blow. For example, President George H. W. Bush enjoyed a 75‑percent favorable rating in the 1990 midterms, and Republicans lost only eight seats. In contrast, when President Bill Clinton’s approval was 46 percent in 1994, Democrats shed 52 seats; when his rating rose to 66 percent by the 1998 midterms, the party lost just five seats.

Researchers argue that Trump’s historically low approval – the lowest of any U.S. president according to UC Santa Barbara’s aggregate – makes it unlikely that Republicans will retain their narrow majorities. The House currently stands at 218‑214 in favor of Republicans, and the Senate at 53‑47, but Democrats are campaigning aggressively to flip both chambers.

There is still a chance for Republicans, however. The Center for Politics points out that presidential approval in exit polls often runs slightly higher than in pre‑election surveys, because the former capture voters who have already cast their ballots. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how effectively each party can mobilize its supporters to turn out on Election Day. How many seats could the Democrats ta